Photo of Professor Till Bärnighausen

Professor Till Bärnighausen

Programme Director- Health Systems and Impact Evaluation:Wellcome Trust & Africa Centre for Population Health

P.O. Box 198
Mtubatuba 3935
South Africa

E: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
T: +27 (0)35 5507509

For the latter programme, he wrote one of the major Africa Centre for Population Health grant applications to PEFPAR, which was funded with USD 5 million. He has been PI on three and co-investigator on two NIH R01 grants. His work has also been funded by the European Commission, 3ie, IDRC (Canada), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Elton John AIDS Foundation, GIZ, USAID, WHO, UNAIDS, UNITAID, and World Bank.

  • URC/USAID/Project ASSIST: “Community health workers for the delivery of HIV treatment in Swaziland, Mozambique, Lesotho, South Africa.” 2016. USD 300,000 Role: Co-PI (with Bossert)
  • NIH/NIAID R01 (R01-AI124389): “Can HIV Hot-Spots be eradicated? An intervention to decrease HIV transmission to young women in rural KwaZulu-Natal South Africa.” 2015-2020. USD 2.0 million. Pending – scored at the 15th percentile of impact scores Role: PI (with Tanser)
  • International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie): “The causal impact of HIV self-test kits on HIV testing among female sex workers in Kampala, Uganda.” 2015-2017. USD 450,000 Role: PI
  • International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie): “A peer educator-delivered HIV self-testing intervention for female sex workers in Zambian border towns.” 2015-2017. USD 450,000 Role: PI
  • NIH/NICHD R01 (R01-HD084233): “Causal pathways to antiretroviral treatment impact on population health.” 2015-2020. USD 2.5 million Role: PI (with Tanser)
  • UNAIDS and World Bank: “Optimizing the UNAIDS ‘investment framework’: resource allocation within the HIV sector for the Eastern and Southern Africa region.” 2015-2016. USD 225,000 Role: PI
  • International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie): “Integration of HIV service into community- based health programme in Tanzania.” 2015. USD 350,000 Role: PI
  • NIH/FIC D43 (D43-TW009775): “Training Tanzanian researchers for HIV/AIDS implementation science.” 2015-2019. USD 1.5 million Role: PI (with Fawzi)
  • URC/USAID/Project ASSIST: “Community health workers for the delivery of HIV and TB treatment in Swaziland.” 2015-2016. USD 317,00 Role: Co-PI (with Bossert)
  • NIH/NIAI R01 (R01-AI112339): “New methods for the design and evaluiation of large HIV prevention interventions.” 2014-2018. USD 2.7 million Role: Co-I (PI: Spiegelman)
  • Large Anonymous Donor (LAD): “Studying the impact and performance of institutionalizing immediate post-partum IUD services as a routine part of antenatal counselling and delivery room services in Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Nepal.” 2015-2017. USD 6.4 million Role: Co-I (PIs: Shah, Canning)


  1. Ahmed, S., Bärnighausen, T., Daniels, N., Marlink, R., & Roberts, M. J. (2016). How providers influence the implementation of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling in Botswana: a qualitative study. Implementation Science   : IS, 11.

  2. Atun, R., Chang, A. Y., Ogbuoji, O., Silva, S., Resch, S., Hontelez, J., & Bärnighausen, T. (2016). Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015–2050: a modelling study. BMJ Open 6(3), e009656.

  3. Geldsetzer, P., Yapa, H. M. N., Vaikath, M., Ogbuoji, O., Fox, M. P., Essajee, S. M., … Bärnighausen, T. (2016). A systematic review of interventions to improve postpartum retention of women in PMTCT and ART care. Journal of the International AIDS Society 19(1).

  4. Harling, G., & Bärnighausen, T. (2016). The role of partners’ educational attainment in the association between HIV and education amongst women in seven sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of the International AIDS Society 19(1).

  5. Hontelez, J. A. C., Tanser, F. C., Naidu, K. K., Pillay, D., & Bärnighausen, T. (2016). The Effect of Antiretroviral Treatment on Health Care Utilization in Rural South Africa: A Population-Based Cohort Study. PloS One 11(7), e0158015.

  6. Oldenburg, C. E., Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Iwuji, C. C., De Gruttola, V., Seage, G. R., … Harling, G. (2016). Antiretroviral therapy to prevent HIV acquisition in serodiscordant couples in a hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  7. Oldenburg, C. E., Perez-Brumer, A. G., Reisner, S. L., Mayer, K. H., Mimiaga, M. J., Hatzenbuehler, M. L., & Bärnighausen, T. (2016). Human rights protections and HIV prevalence among MSM who sell sex: Cross-country comparisons from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Global Public Health 1–12.

  8. Treffry-Goatley, A., Lessells, R., Sykes, P., Bärnighausen, T., de Oliveira, T., Moletsane, R., & Seeley, J. (2016). Understanding Specific Contexts of Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence in Rural South Africa: A Thematic Analysis of Digital Stories from a Community with High HIV Prevalence. PLOS ONE 11(2), e0148801.


  1. Anekwe, T. D., Newell, M.-L., Tanser, F., Pillay, D., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). The effect of childhood measles vaccination on educational attainment: A mother-fixed-effects study in rural South Africa. Vaccine.
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Eyal, N., & Wikler, D. (2015). HIV Treatment-As-Prevention Research: Authors’ Reply. PLoS Medicine, 12(3).
  3. Bor, J., Moscoe, E., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Three approaches to causal inference in regression discontinuity designs. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 26(2), e28–30; discussion e30.
  4. Bor, J., Rosen, S., Chimbindi, N., Haber, N., Herbst, K., Mutevedzi, T., … Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa. PLoS Medicine, 12(11).
  5. Chimbindi, N., Bor, J., Newell, M.-L., Tanser, F., Baltusen, R., Hontelez, J., … Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Time and money: the true costs of health care utilization for patients receiving “free” HIV/TB care and treatment in rural KwaZulu-Natal. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 1.
  6. Elkies, N., Fink, G., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). “Scrambling” geo-referenced data to protect privacy induces bias in distance estimation. Population and Environment, 1–16.
  7. Harling, G., Tanser, F., Mutevedzi, T., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Assessing the validity of respondents’ reports of their partners’ ages in a rural South African population-based cohort. BMJ Open, 5(3), e005638.
  8. Langlois, E. V., Ranson, M. K., Bärnighausen, T., Bosch-Capblanch, X., Daniels, K., El-Jardali, F., … Røttingen, J.-A. (2015). Advancing the field of health systems research synthesis. Systematic Reviews, 4(1).
  9. Larmarange, J., Mossong, J., Bärnighausen, T., & Newell, M. L. (2015). Participation Dynamics in Population-Based Longitudinal HIV Surveillance in Rural South Africa. PLOS ONE, 10(4), e0123345.
  10. McGovern, M. E., Bärnighausen, T., Marra, G., & Radice, R. (2015). On the assumption of bivariate normality in selection models: a Copula approach applied to estimating HIV prevalence. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 26(2), 229–237.
  11. McGovern, M. E., Bärnighausen, T., Salomon, J. A., & Canning, D. (2015). Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 15.
  12. McGovern, M. E., Marra, G., Radice, R., Canning, D., Newell, M.-L., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance. Journal of the International AIDS Society, 18(1).
  13. Moscoe, E., Bor, J., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Regression discontinuity designs are underutilized in medicine, epidemiology, and public health: a review of current and best practice. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 68(2), 122–133.
  14. Orne-Gliemann, J., Larmarange, J., Boyer, S., Iwuji, C., McGrath, N., Bärnighausen, T., … Imrie, J. (2015). Addressing social issues in a universal HIV test and treat intervention trial (ANRS 12249 TasP) in South Africa: methods for appraisal. BMC Public Health, 15(1), 209.
  15. Ortblad, K. F., Salomon, J. A., Bärnighausen, T., & Atun, R. (2015). Stopping tuberculosis: a biosocial model for sustainable development. The Lancet.
  16. Otieno, G., Marinda, E., Bärnighausen, T., & Tanser, F. (2015). High rates of homicide in a rural South African population (2000–2008): findings from a population-based cohort study. Population Health Metrics, 13(1).
  17. Rockers, P. C., Røttingen, J.-A., Shemilt, I., Tugwell, P., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). Inclusion of Quasi-Experimental Studies in Systematic Reviews of Health Systems Research. Health Policy.
  18. Rosenberg, M., Pettifor, A., Nguyen, N., Westreich, D., Bor, J., Bärnighausen, T., … Kahn, K. (2015). Relationship between Receipt of a Social Protection Grant for a Child and Second Pregnancy Rates among South African Women: A Cohort Study. PLoS ONE, 10(9).
  19. Schomaker, M., Hogger, S., Johnson, L. F., Hoffmann, C. J., Bärnighausen, T., & Heumann, C. (2015). Simultaneous Treatment of Missing Data and Measurement Error in HIV Research Using Multiple Overimputation. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.).
  20. Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Vandormael, A., & Dobra, A. (2015). HIV treatment cascade in migrants and mobile populations. Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS, 1.
  21. Vollmer, S., Alfven, T., Padayachy, J., Harttgen, K., Ghys, P. D., & Bärnighausen, T. (2015). HIV surveys in older adults: better data, better health. The Lancet HIV, 2(2), e40–e41.


  1. Ardington, C., Bärnighausen, T., Case, A., Menendez, A., 2014. The Economic Consequences of AIDS mortality in South Africa. J Dev Econ 111, 48–60. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.08.001
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Berkley, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bishai, D.M., Black, M.M., Bloom, D.E., Constenla, D., Driessen, J., Edmunds, J., Evans, D…, 2014. Reassessing the value of vaccines. The Lancet Global Health 2, e251–e252. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70170-0
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Eyal, N., Wikler, D., 2014. HIV Treatment-as-Prevention Research at a Crossroads. PLoS Medicine 11, e1001654. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001654
  4. Bor, J., Moscoe, E., Mutevedzi, P., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Regression Discontinuity Designs in Epidemiology: Causal Inference Without Randomized Trials. Epidemiology 25, 729–737. doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000138
  5. Brenner, S., Muula, A.S., Robyn, P.J., Bärnighausen, T., Sarker, M., Mathanga, D.P., Bossert, T., De Allegri, M., 2014. Design of an impact evaluation using a mixed methods model--an explanatory assessment of the effects of results-based financing mechanisms on maternal healthcare services in Malawi. BMC Health Serv Res 14, 180. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-14-180
  6. Chaiyachati, K.H., Ogbuoji, O., Price, M., Suthar, A.B., Negussie, E.K., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Interventions to improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy: a rapid systematic review. AIDS 28, S187–S204. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000252
  7. Chimbindi, N., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2014. Patient satisfaction with HIV and TB treatment in a public programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal: evidence from patient-exit interviews. BMC Health Serv Res 14. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-14-32
  8. Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bakker, R., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M.-C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mikkelsen, E., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L., Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., de Vlas, S.J., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., Hallett, T.B., 2014. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. The Lancet Global Health 2, e23–e34. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70172-4
  9. Gore, R.J., Fox, A.M., Goldberg, A.B., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Bringing the state back in: Understanding and validating measures of governments’ political commitment to HIV. Global Public Health 9, 98–120. doi:10.1080/17441692.2014.881523
  10. Harling, G., Newell, M.-L., Tanser, F., Kawachi, I., Subramanian, S.V., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Do Age-Disparate Relationships Drive HIV Incidence in Young Women? Evidence from a Population Cohort in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr. 66, 443–451. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000000198
  11. Harling, G., Subramanian, S.V., Bärnighausen, T., Kawachi, I., 2014. Income inequality and sexually transmitted in the United States: who bears the burden? Soc Sci Med 102, 174–182. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.11.025
  12. Hope, R., Kendall, T., Langer, A., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Health Systems Integration of Sexual and Reproductive Health and HIV Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Scoping Study. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 67. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000000381
  13. Kendall, T., Bärnighausen, T., Fawzi, W.W., Langer, A., 2014. Towards Comprehensive Womenʼs Healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa: Addressing Intersections Between HIV, Reproductive and Maternal Health. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 67, S169–S172. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000000382
  14. Lema, I.A., Sando, D., Magesa, L., Machumi, L., Mungure, E., Mwanyika Sando, M., Geldsetzer, P., Foster, D., Kajoka, D., Naburi, H., Ekström, A.M., Spiegelman, D., Li, N., Chalamilla, G., Fawzi, W., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Community Health Workers to Improve Antenatal Care and PMTCT Uptake in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A Quantitative Performance Evaluation. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 67, S195–S201. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000000371
  15. Oldenburg, C.E., Bärnighausen, T., Harling, G., Mimiaga, M.J., Mayer, K.H., 2014. Adherence to post-exposure prophylaxis for non-forcible sexual exposure to HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS Behav 18, 217–225. doi:10.1007/s10461-013-0567-0
  16. Oldenburg, C.E., Perez-Brumer, A.G., Reisner, S.L., Mattie, J., Bärnighausen, T., Mayer, K.H., Mimiaga, M.J., 2014. Global Burden of HIV among Men Who Engage in Transactional Sex: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLoS ONE 9 (7), e103549. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103549
  17. Robyn, P.J., Bärnighausen, T., Souares, A., Traoré, A., Bicaba, B., Sié, A., Sauerborn, R., 2014. Provider payment methods and health worker motivation in community-based health insurance: a mixed-methods study. Soc Sci Med 108, 223–236. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.01.034
  18. Raifman, J., Chetty, T., Tanser, F., Mutevedzi, T., Matthews, P., Herbst, K., Pillay, D., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Preventing Unintended Pregnancy and HIV Transmission: Effects of the HIV Treatment Cascade on Contraceptive Use and Choice in Rural KwaZulu-Natal. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 67, S218–S227. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000000373
  19. Rockers, P.C., Røttingen, J.-A., Shemilt, I., Tugwell, P., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Inclusion of Quasi-Experimental Studies in Systematic Reviews of Health Systems Research. Health Policy. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2014.10.006
  20. Silal, S.P., Penn-Kekana, L., Bärnighausen, T., Schneider, H., 2014. Local level inequalities in the use of hospital-based maternal delivery in rural South Africa. Global Health 10, 60. doi:10.1186/s12992-014-0060-1
  21. Tanser, F., de Oliveira, T., Maheu-Giroux, M., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Concentrated HIV subepidemics in generalized epidemic settings. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 9, 115–125. doi:10.1097/COH.0000000000000034
  22. Vandormael, A., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., 2014. Use of antiretroviral therapy in households and risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2004-12: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Glob Health 2, e209–e215. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70018-X
  23. Yeji, F., Klipstein-Grobusch, K., Newell, M.-L., Hirschhorn, L.R., Hosegood, V., Bärnighausen, T., 2014. Are social support and HIV coping strategies associated with lower depression in adults on antiretroviral treatment? Evidence from rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. AIDS Care 26, 1482–1489. doi:10.1080/09540121.2014.931561


  1. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Cafiero, E.T., O’Brien, J.C., 2013. Valuing the broader benefits of dengue vaccination, with a preliminary application to Brazil. Seminars in Immunology 25, 104–113. doi:10.1016/j.smim.2013.04.010
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2013. Global health governance and tropical diseases. IZA Policy Paper.
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Herbst, K., Mutevedzi, T., Mossong, J., Newell, M.-L., 2013. Structural barriers to antiretroviral treatment: a study using population-based CD4 cell count and linked antiretroviral treatment programme data. The Lancet 382, S5. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62253-9
  4. Harling, G., Subramanian, S., Bärnighausen, T., Kawachi, I., 2013. Socioeconomic disparities in sexually transmitted infections among young adults in the United States: examining the interaction between income and race/ethnicity. Sex Transm Dis 40, 575–581. doi:10.1097/OLQ.0b013e31829529cf
  5. Bor, J., Herbst, A.J., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2013. Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment. Science 339, 961–965. doi:10.1126/science.1230413
  6. Bowser, D., Sparkes, S.P., Mitchell, A., Bossert, T.J., Bärnighausen, T., Gedik, G., Atun, R., 2013. Global Fund investments in human resources for health: innovation and missed opportunities for health systems strengthening. Health Policy Plan. doi:10.1093/heapol/czt080
  7. Ettenger, A., Bärnighausen, T., Castro, A., 2013. Health insurance for the poor decreases access to HIV testing in antenatal care: evidence of an unintended effect of health insurance reform in Colombia. Health Policy Plan. doi:10.1093/heapol/czt021
  8. Hontelez, J.A.C., Lurie, M.N., Bärnighausen, T., Bakker, R., Baltussen, R., Tanser, F., Hallett, T.B., Newell, M.-L., de Vlas, S.J., 2013. Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study. PLoS Med. 10. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001534
  9. Malaza, A., Mossong, J., Bärnighausen, T., Viljoen, J., Newell, M.-L., 2013. Population-Based CD4 Counts in a Rural Area in South Africa with High HIV Prevalence and High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage. PLoS ONE 8. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0070126
  10. Manne, J.M., Snively, C.S., Ramsey, J.M., Salgado, M.O., Bärnighausen, T., Reich, M.R., 2013. Barriers to treatment access for Chagas disease in Mexico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7, e2488. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002488
  11. Moat, K.A., Lavis, J.N., Wilson, M.G., Røttingen, J.-A., Bärnighausen, T., 2013. Twelve myths about systematic reviews for health system policymaking rebutted. J Health Serv Res Policy 18, 44–50. doi:10.1258/jhsrp.2012.011175
  12. Mossong, J., Grapsa, E., Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2013. Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa. AIDS 27, 2471–2479. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000432475.14992.da
  13. Robyn, P.J., Bärnighausen, T., Souares, A., Savadogo, G., Bicaba, B., Sié, A., Sauerborn, R., 2013. Does enrollment status in community-based insurance lead to poorer quality of care? Evidence from Burkina Faso. Int J Equity Health 12. doi:10.1186/1475-9276-12-31
  14. Robyn, P.J., Sauerborn, R., Bärnighausen, T., 2013. Provider payment in community-based health insurance schemes in developing countries: a systematic review. Health Policy Plan 28, 111–122. doi:10.1093/heapol/czs034
  15. Rockers, P.C., Bärnighausen, T., 2013. Interventions for hiring, retaining and training district health systems managers in low- and middle-income countries. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 4. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD009035.pub2
  16. Rosenberg, N.E., Westreich, D., Bärnighausen, T., Miller, W.C., Behets, F., Maman, S., Newell, M.-L., Pettifor, A., 2013. Assessing the effect of HIV counselling and testing on HIV acquisition among South African youth: AIDS 27, 2765–2773. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000432454.68357.6a
  17. Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Grapsa, E., Zaidi, J., Newell, M.-L., 2013. High coverage of ART associated with decline in risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Science 339, 966–971. doi:10.1126/science.1228160
  18. Zaidi, J., Grapsa, E., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2013. Dramatic increase in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment. AIDS 27, 2301–2305. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e328362e832


  1. Anand, S., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Health workers at the core of the health system: framework and research issues. Health Policy 105, 185–191. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.10.012
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2012. Economics of antiretroviral treatment vs. circumcision for HIV prevention. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109, 21271–21276. doi:10.1073/pnas.1209017110
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2012. Health systems and HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: matching intervention and programme evaluation strategies. Sex Transm Infect 88, e2. doi:10.1136/sextrans-2011-050303
  4. Kassanjee, R., McWalter, T.A., Bärnighausen, T., Welte, A., 2012. A new general biomarker-based incidence estimator. Epidemiology 23, 721–728. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182576c07
  5. Robyn, P.J., Bärnighausen, T., Souares, A., Savadogo, G., Bicaba, B., Sié, A., Sauerborn, R., 2012. Health worker preferences for community-based health insurance payment mechanisms: a discrete choice experiment. BMC Health Serv Res 12. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-12-159
  6. Rockers, P.C., Feigl, A.B., Røttingen, J.-A., Fretheim, A., de Ferranti, D., Lavis, J.N., Melberg, H.O., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Study-design selection criteria in systematic reviews of effectiveness of health systems interventions and reforms: A meta-review. Health Policy 104, 206–214. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.12.007
  7. Bärnighausen, T., Chaiyachati, K., Chimbindi, N., Haberer, J., Newell, M.-L., 2012. Antiretroviral therapy requires life-long adherence – Authors’ reply. Lancet Infect Dis 12. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70202-5
  8. Bärnighausen, T., Kyle, M., Salomon, J.A., Waning, B., 2012. Assessing the population health impact of market interventions to improve access to antiretroviral treatment. Health Policy Plan 27, 467–476. doi:10.1093/heapol/czr058
  9. Bärnighausen, T., Salomon, J.A., Sangrujee, N., 2012. HIV treatment as prevention: issues in economic evaluation. PLoS Med. 9. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001263
  10. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Dabis, F., Newell, M.-L., 2012. Interventions to improve the performance of HIV health systems for treatment-as-prevention in sub-Saharan Africa: the experimental evidence. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 7, 140–150. doi:10.1097/COH.0b013e32834fc1df
  11. Barter, D.M., Agboola, S.O., Murray, M.B., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Tuberculosis and poverty: the contribution of patient costs in sub-Saharan Africa--a systematic review. BMC Public Health 12. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-980
  12. Bor, J., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Economic spillover effects of HIV treatment on rural South African households. XIX International AIDS Conference Poster.
  13. Bor, J., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Nearly full employment recovery among South African HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy: evidence from a large population cohort. Health Aff (Millwood) 31, 1459–1469. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0407
  14. Chimbindi, N., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2012. Almost universal coverage: HIV testing among TB patients in a rural public programme. Int. J. Tuberc. Lung Dis. 16. doi:10.5588/ijtld.11.0754
  15. Eaton, J.W., Johnson, L.F., Salomon, J.A., Bärnighausen, T., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Cambiano, V., Fraser, C., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Klein, D.J., Long, E.F., Phillips, A.N., Pretorius, C., Stover, J., Wenger, E.A., Williams, B.G., Hallett, T.B., 2012. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med. 9, 001245. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245
  16. Eyal, N., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Precommitting to serve the underserved. Am J Bioeth 12, 23–34. doi:10.1080/15265161.2012.665134
  17. Floyd, S., Marston, M., Baisley, K., Wringe, A., Herbst, K., Chihana, M., Kasamba, I., Bärnighausen, T., Urassa, M., French, N., Todd, J., Zaba, B., 2012. The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level – a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa. Tropical Medicine & International Health 17, e84–e93. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2012.03032.x
  18. Giordano, K., Bärnighausen, T., McGrath, N., Snow, R., Harlow, S., Newell, M.-L., 2012. Factors associated with repeated refusal to participate in longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance in rural South Africa: an observational study, regression analyses. Journal of HIV/AIDS Surveillance and Epidemiology 4.
  19. Goldberg, A.B., Fox, A.M., Gore, R.J., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. Indicators of political commitment to respond to HIV. Sex Transm Infect 88. doi:10.1136/sextrans-2011-050221
  20. Hogan, D.R., Salomon, J.A., Canning, D., Hammitt, J.K., Zaslavsky, A.M., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models. Sex Transm Infect 88, i17–i23. doi:10.1136/sextrans-2012-050636
  21. Hontelez, J.A.C., de Vlas, S.J., Baltussen, R., Newell, M.-L., Bakker, R., Tanser, F., Lurie, M., Bärnighausen, T., 2012. The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 26 Suppl 1, S19–30. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283558526
  22. Malaza, A., Mossong, J., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2012. Hypertension and obesity in adults living in a high HIV prevalence rural area in South Africa. PLoS ONE 7. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047761
  23. Mills, E.J., Bärnighausen, T., Negin, J., 2012. HIV and aging--preparing for the challenges ahead. N. Engl. J. Med. 366, 1270–1273. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1113643
  24. Negin, J., Bärnighausen, T., Lundgren, J.D., Mills, E.J., 2012. Aging with HIV in Africa: the challenges of living longer. AIDS 26, S1–S5. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283560f54
  25. Zaba, B., Kasamba, I., Floyd, S., Isingo, R., Herbst, K., Bärnighausen, T., Gregson, S., Nyamukapa, C., Kayuni, N., Todd, J., Marston, M., Wringe, A., 2012. Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.
  26. Zhou, J., Lurie, M.N., Bärnighausen, T., McGarvey, S.T., Newell, M.-L., Tanser, F., 2012. Determinants and spatial patterns of adult overweight and hypertension in a high HIV prevalence rural South African population. Health Place 18, 1300–1306. doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2012.09.001


  1. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Canning, D., Friedman, A., Levine, O.S., O’Brien, J., Privor-Dumm, L., Walker, D., 2011. Rethinking the benefits and costs of childhood vaccination: the example of the Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine. Vaccine 29, 2371–2380. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.11.090
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2011b. Going horizontal--shifts in funding of global health interventions.
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Bor, J., Wandira-Kazibwe, S., Canning, D., 2011. Correcting HIV prevalence estimates for survey nonparticipation using Heckman-type selection models. Epidemiology 22, 27–35. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181ffa201
  4. Bärnighausen, T., Chaiyachati, K., Chimbindi, N., Peoples, A., Haberer, J., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Interventions to increase antiretroviral adherence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of evaluation studies. Lancet Infect Dis 11, 942–951. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70181-5
  5. Bor, J., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, C., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Social exposure to an antiretroviral treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal.
  6. Chaiyachati, K., Hirschhorn, L.R., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2011. Validating five questions of antiretroviral nonadherence in a public-sector treatment program in rural South Africa. AIDS Patient Care STDS 25, 163–170. doi:10.1089/apc.2010.0257
  7. Fox, A.M., Goldberg, A.B., Gore, R.J., Bärnighausen, T., 2011. Conceptual and methodological challenges to measuring political commitment to respond to HIV. J Int AIDS Soc 14 Suppl 2. doi:10.1186/1758-2652-14-S2-S5
  8. Hontelez, J.A.C., de Vlas, S.J., Tanser, F., Bakker, R., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., Baltussen, R., Lurie, M.N., 2011. The impact of the new WHO antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in South Africa. PLoS ONE 6. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021919
  9. Ndirangu, J., Bland, R., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Validating child vaccination status in a demographic surveillance system using data from a clinical cohort study: evidence from rural South Africa. BMC Public Health 11, 372–378. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-372
  10. Ott, M.Q., Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Lurie, M.N., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Age-gaps in sexual partnerships: seeing beyond “sugar daddies.” AIDS 25, 861–863. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834344c9
  11. Rochat, T.J., Tomlinson, M., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., Stein, A., 2011. The prevalence and clinical presentation of antenatal depression in rural South Africa. J Affect Disord 135, 362–373. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2011.08.011
  12. Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Hund, L., Garnett, G.P., McGrath, N., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Effect of concurrent sexual partnerships on rate of new HIV infections in a high-prevalence, rural South African population: a cohort study. Lancet 378, 247–255. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60779-4
  13. Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Hund, L., Garnett, G.P., McGrath, N., Newell, M.-L., 2011. Role of concurrency in generalised HIV epidemics – Authors’ reply. The Lancet 378, 1845–1846. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61806-0
  14. Hontelez, J.A.C., Lurie, M.N., Newell, M.-L., Bakker, R., Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Baltussen, R., de Vlas, S.J., 2011. Ageing with HIV in South Africa. AIDS 25, 1665–1667. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834982ea
  15. Hontelez, J.A.C., Nagelkerke, N., Bärnighausen, T., Bakker, R., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., Lurie, M.N., Baltussen, R., de Vlas, S.J., 2011. The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: a study using the STDSIM microsimulation model. Vaccine 29, 6100–6106. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.059


  1. Bärnighausen, T., 2010. The role of the health system in HIV treatment-as-prevention: AIDS 24, 2741–2742. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283408735
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2010. Universal antiretroviral treatment: the challenge of human resources. Bulletin of the World Health Organisation. 88, 951–952. doi:10.2471/BLT.09.073890
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Hallett, T., Newell, M.-L., 2010. Short communication: Prioritizing communities for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS Res. Hum. Retroviruses 26, 401–405. doi:10.1089/aid.2009.0236
  4. Mutevedzi, P.C., Lessells, R.J., Heller, T., Bärnighausen, T., Cooke, G.S., Newell, M.-L., 2010. Scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: does rapid expansion affect patient outcomes? Bulletin of the World Health Organisation. 88, 593–600. doi:10.2471/BLT.09.069419
  5. Nyirenda, M., Zaba, B., Bärnighausen, T., Hosegood, V., Newell, M.-L., 2010. Adjusting HIV prevalence for survey non-response using mortality rates: an application of the method using surveillance data from Rural South Africa. PLoS ONE 5. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012370
  6. Waning, B., Diedrichsen, E., Jambert, E., Bärnighausen, T., Li, Y., Pouw, M., Moon, S., 2010. The global pediatric antiretroviral market: analyses of product availability and utilization reveal challenges for development of pediatric formulations and HIV/AIDS treatment in children. BMC Pediatr 10, 74. doi:10.1186/1471-2431-10-74
  7. Waning, B., Kyle, M., Diedrichsen, E., Soucy, L., Hochstadt, J., Bärnighausen, T., Moon, S., 2010. Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets. Global Health 6. doi:10.1186/1744-8603-6-9
  8. Bärnighausen, T., McWalter, T.A., Rosner, Z., Newell, M.-L., Welte, A., 2010. HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology 21, 685–697. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9e978


  1. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., 2009. Changing research perspectives on the global health workforce. National Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., 2009. “Conditional scholarships” for HIV/AIDS health workers: educating and retaining the workforce to provide antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa. Soc Sci Med 68, 544–551. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.11.009
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., 2009. Designing financial-incentive programmes for return of medical service in underserved areas: seven management functions. Hum Resour Health 7. doi:10.1186/1478-4491-7-52
  4. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., 2009. Financial incentives for return of service in underserved areas: a systematic review. BMC Health Serv Res 9. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-9-86
  5. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2009. A Mathematical Model for Estimating the Number of Health Workers Required for Universal Antiretroviral Treatment. National Bureau of Economic Research.
  6. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., 2009. Rethinking the role of the local community in HIV epidemic spread in sub-Saharan Africa: a proximate-determinants approach. HIV Ther 3, 435–445. doi:10.2217/hiv.09.33
  7. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., 2009. Lack of a decline in HIV incidence in a rural community with high HIV prevalence in South Africa, 2003-2007. AIDS Res. Hum. Retroviruses 25, 405–409. doi:10.1089/aid.2008.0211
  8. Hallett, T.B., Ghys, P., Bärnighausen, T., Yan, P., Garnett, G.P., 2009. Errors in “BED”-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age. PLoS ONE 4. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005720
  9. Herbst, A.J., Cooke, G.S., Bärnighausen, T., KanyKany, A., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., 2009. Adult mortality and antiretroviral treatment roll-out in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Bull. World Health Organ. 87, 754–762. doi:10.1590/S0042-96862009001000011
  10. Ndirangu, J., Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Tint, K., Newell, M.-L., 2009. Levels of childhood vaccination coverage and the impact of maternal HIV status on child vaccination status in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa*.
  11. Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Cooke, G.S., Newell, M.-L., 2009. Localized spatial clustering of HIV infections in a widely disseminated rural South African epidemic. Int J Epidemiol 38, 1008–1016. doi:10.1093/ije/dyp148
  12. Welte, A., McWalter, T.A., Bärnighausen, T., 2009. A Simplified Formula for Inferring HIV Incidence from Cross-Sectional Surveys Using a Test for Recent Infection. AIDS Res. Hum. Retroviruses 25, 125–126. doi:10.1089/aid.2008.0150
  13. Welte, A., McWalter, T.A., Bärnighausen, T., 2009. Reply to “Should biomarker estimates of HIV incidence be adjusted?.” AIDS 23, 2062–2063; author reply 2066–2068. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832eff59


  1. Bärnighausen, T., 2008. Reasons for loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs in South Africa. Future HIV Therapy 2, 141–145. doi:10.2217/17469600.2.2.141
  2. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Canning, D., O’Brien, J., 2008. Accounting for the full benefits of childhood vaccination in South Africa. S. Afr. Med. J. 98, 842,–844–846.
  3. Tanser, F., Hosegood, V., Bärnighausen, T., Herbst, K., Nyirenda, M., Muhwava, W., Newell, C., Viljoen, J., Mutevedzi, T., Newell, M.-L., 2008. Cohort Profile: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey. Int J Epidemiol 37, 956–962. doi:10.1093/ije/dym211
  4. Bärnighausen, T., Tanser, F., Gqwede, Z., Mbizana, C., Herbst, K., Newell, M.-L., 2008. High HIV incidence in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa: findings from a prospective population-based study. AIDS 22, 139–144. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f2ef43
  5. Bärnighausen, T., Wallrauch, C., Welte, A., McWalter, T.A., Mbizana, N., Viljoen, J., Graham, N., Tanser, F., Puren, A., Newell, M.-L., 2008. HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing. PLoS ONE 3. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0003640


  1. Anand, S., Bärnighausen, T., 2007. Health workers and vaccination coverage in developing countries: an econometric analysis. Lancet 369, 1277–1285. doi:
  2. Bärnighausen, T., 2007. Access to antiretroviral treatment in the developing world: a framework, review and health systems research agenda. Therapy 4, 753–766.
  3. Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D.E., Humair, S., 2007. Human resources for treating HIV/AIDS: needs, capacities, and gaps. AIDS Patient Care STDS 21, 799–812. doi:10.1089/apc.2007.0193
  4. Bärnighausen, T., Hosegood, V., Timaeus, I.M., Newell, M.-L., 2007. The socioeconomic determinants of HIV incidence: evidence from a longitudinal, population-based study in rural South Africa. AIDS 21 Suppl 7, S29–38. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000300533.59483.95
  5. Bärnighausen, T., Liu, Y., Zhang, X., Sauerborn, R., 2007. Willingness to pay for social health insurance among informal sector workers in Wuhan, China: a contingent valuation study. BMC Health Serv Res 7. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-7-114
  6. Newell, M.-L., Bärnighausen, T., 2007. Male circumcision to cut HIV risk in the general population. Lancet 369, 617–619. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60288-8
  7. Nyirenda, M., Hosegood, V., Bärnighausen, T., Newell, M.-L., 2007. Mortality levels and trends by HIV serostatus in rural South Africa. AIDS 21 Suppl 6, S73–79. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299413.82893.2b
  8. Zaba, B., Marston, M., Crampin, A.C., Isingo, R., Biraro, S., Bärnighausen, T., Lopman, B., Lutalo, T., Glynn, J.R., Todd, J., 2007. Age-specific mortality patterns in HIV-infected individuals: a comparative analysis of African community study data. AIDS 21 Suppl 6, S87–96. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299415.67646.26


  1. Anand, S., Bärnighausen, T., 2004. Human resources and health outcomes: cross-country econometric study. Lancet 364, 1603–1609. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17313-3


  1. Bärnighausen, T., Sauerborn, R., 2002. One hundred and eighteen years of the German health insurance system: are there any lessons for middle- and low-income countries? Soc Sci Med 54, 1559–1587.

Health Systems and Impact Evaluation

Dr. Bärnighausen is Director of the Programme on Health Systems and Impact Evaluation at the Africa Centre for Population Health. The Programme aims to establish the population health, economic and social impacts of priority health programs, in particular HIV treatment and related interventions, in a typical rural community in Southern Africa; and on identifying effective interventions to improve district-level health systems delivery in rural Africa.